Bookmakers Awake to 007 Betting Interest Ahead of No Time To Die
The latest Bond blockbuster, No Time To Die, will be released in September. It is officially Daniel Craig’s last appearance as 007 meaning bookmaker PR executives are having a field-day in the ‘who will be the next James Bond’ promotional stakes. Tom Hardy is the current favorite to assume the role but when it comes to Bond betting, nothing is straightforward.
Mad Max actor Tom Hardy is the bookies favorite to become the next 007. ?Shutterstock
It Started with A Mysterious Gunman
Old school bookmakers love a newspaper grabbing headline. It is a tradition that was set into motion in 1980 when William Hill PR executive Graham Sharpe devised and promoted odds on ‘who shot JR’ in the hugely popular TV show, Dallas. This novel move caught the attention of red-top newspaper editors and the BBC news desk.
The soap’s storyline had viewers on either side of the Atlantic gripped and the revealing episode attracted a US audience of 83 million. An additional 21.5 million Brit’s also tuned-in to discover who carried out the dastardly deed.
Before viewers discovered Kristin Shepard was the gunman, William Hill had taken over ￡150,000 in bets (almost ￡600,000 in today’s money) on the outcome. It should have been a wining book for them as Lusty Dusty, the 6/4 favorite, did not pull the trigger.
However, William Hill declared they lost on the market whilst conceding they earned priceless publicity. Resultantly, betting on novelty outcomes has become commonplace. Britain’s bookmakers now take bets on anything from snow on Christmas day to the color of the Queen’s hat at Royal Ascot.
Bond Betting Has Never Died
The modern equivalent of ‘who shot JR’ is the ‘identity of the next James Bond’. This week, with the world premiere of No Time To Die, the 25th Bond film, given a September 28 date, bookmakers have gone into overdrive firing-out their media releases speculating who will replace the current 007, Daniel Craig.
This market has been in-play for almost six years since Craig, when questioned by Time Out about future Bond roles, said:
“I’d rather slash my wrists. I’m over it at the moment. We’re done. All I want to do is move on.”
Since then, Spectre was released and No Time To Die has been made. Craig was the man with a government issued Walther PPK in his pocket on both occasions. However, the latest release is officially Craig’s last outing as the suave spy with a license to kill.
The race is now on to identify who will be chosen to become the eighth 007. Over the past five-plus years countless names have been in the bookmakers’ sights. If the scores of press releases are to be believed, the betting turnover on this intriguing market is already enormous.
Slash and Burn
During March 2016 BoyleSports reported “massive interest in Hobbit actor Aidan Turner” and cut his odds to 4/1. In May Coral suspended betting on the next James Bond following “a sustained gamble on Tom Hiddleston” which saw the Night Manager star backed into odds-on.
In August of that year, it was Happy Valley star James Norton who was attracting all the money with BoyleSports. “A burst of support has resulted in the Londoner’s odds being slashed into 9/4, “ the Irish firm declared in a press statement.
Three weeks later Ladbrokes saw a “flood of bets” for Jamie Bell, the star of Jamie Elliot. At the time they rated his chances “as good as our long-term favorite Idris Elba.” Around the same time Paddy Power “slashed the odds about Batman star Tom Hardy being the next Bond.”
By early 2017 Paddy Power had “slashed the price on Ryan Gosling being the next James Bond after his success in La La Land.” Months later they were slashing again. This time it was James Norton that saw them reaching for a thick black marker pen.
Meanwhile Ladbrokes made Poldark actor Aidan Turner their 4/1 second favorite as BoyleSports reported “a major move for Michael Fassbender” and made him their new favorite. Not to be outdone, “a rush of bets” saw William Hill promote Broardwalk Empire actor Jack Huston into favorite.
Betting Cuts and Suspensions
In February 2018 Ladbrokes announced they were cutting the Oscar nominated Daniel Kaluuya into 6/1. Days later, they issued another press release titled: “Ladbrokes traders have slashed the odds on ‘Peaky Blinder’ Cillian Murphy becoming the next actor to play James Bond after a flurry of bets from punters.”
Cillian Murphy, who plays Tommy Shelby in Peaky Blinders, was considered a James Bond contender in early 2019. ©GettyImages
2018 was a hectic year for the burgeoning ‘next Bond’ market. Paddy Power announced they were “suspending betting on Idris Elba to be the next James Bond” following a “huge series of bets” in August. Yet, by October Bodyguard star Richard Madden was clear favorite with many betting companies trading around 5/4.
Strangely 2019 was relatively muted with Tom Hiddleston, James Norton and Richard Madden exchanging ‘next Bond’ favoritism for much of the year. Jack Lowden, who appeared in the 2016 BBC miniseries War and Peace, and the 2017 movie Dunkirk, was a notable new entrant in the betting. He hovered around 6/1 for most of the year. By late November a spokesman for Coral told The Scotsman Outlander star Sam Heughan was their new favorite to be next James Bond.
Turner Slashed Twice
In 2020 Ladbrokes alone issued ten press statements regarding betting movements in the 007 market. James Norton was Ladbrokes favorite at the start the year. In April the company announced the odds about Aidan Turner had been “slashed into 5/1.”
May saw a “flurry of bets” on James Norton and Sam Heughan. The later was clipped into 3/1 second favorite. August’s Ladbrokes 007 betting news was yet another “slashing” for Aidan Turner once again. This time he was cut from 12’s into 8/1.
Corals started the year by telling The Express newspaper Tom Ellis, star of Lucifer and Miranda had been … you guessed it, “slashed in the betting.” By the autumn the paper was quoting Ladbrokes PR team about the chances of Henry Cavill, best known for playing Superman, who was all the rage and gambled into 6/1.
Detective Inspector to Get a Promotion?
This game of bookmaker promotion, which sometimes appears like a counterintelligence exercise, continues to this very day. In March 2021 Martin Compton, who plays Detective Inspector Steve Arnott in Line Of Duty’s anti-corruption unit, was declared to be a live candidate by BoyleSports. The firm offered him up at just 7/2.
A month later Betway grabbed the headlines by announcing they had suspended their ‘next Bond’ market following news that Rege-Jean Page has left his role as Simon Basset in Netflix’ Bridgerton. Never in the betting until March of 2021, the 31-year-old is the current 2/1 second favorite and has never been bigger than 5/1.
Best known for playing Simon Basset, Duke of Hastings, in Bridgerton, Rege-Jean Page is the latest actor to heavily backed for the Bond role. ?Getty
Heading the betting now is Tom Hardy. Lead actor in 2008’s Bronson, 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road, and 2020’s Capone, the 43-year-old has an outstanding résumé which also features TV roles in Peaky Blinders and the BBC mini-series, Oliver Twist.
Is Hardy’s 007 Appointment Just Fiction?
Hardy has been favorite since last September when an obscure website specializing in comic book heroes and Star Trek declared the Londoner has been cast in the role. Remarkably this apparent exclusive was picked up by many newspapers and taken as gospel by a good proportion of them.
It could well be true but until producer Barbara Broccoli makes an official appointment the market will remain open. It is likely to ebb and flow as much as it has in any part of the past six years and for some considerable time yet to come.
In a recent interview Broccoli made it very clear the identity of the next Bond will not be made anytime soon. Therefore, people who do place a wager on the identity the next MI6 special agent may have to wait until well after the dust has settled on No Time To Die’s global release before knowing their fate.
Be mindful that almost three years past between the launch of Pierce Brosnan’s final Bond movie, Die Another Day, and Daniel Craig being formally announced as his replacement for 2006’s Casino Royal.
It would appear there are plenty more bookmaker press releases yet to be written on the subject.
